Indiatoday Lok Sabha Elections Survey: The Mood of the Nation projects 335 seats for the PM Modi-led NDA in the Lok Sabha elections, predicting a hat-trick win. It is anticipated that the INDIA alliance will win 166 seats.
As India nears the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha elections, insights from the Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey provide perspective on the political dynamics influencing the nation’s trajectory. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is expected to clinch a third consecutive term with a substantial majority. However, it is projected to fall significantly short of its ambitious “400 paar” target.
According to the MOTN poll, if the Lok Sabha elections were held today, the BJP-led NDA would probably maintain its hold on power by securing 335 seats, comfortably exceeding the 272-seat threshold required for forming a government. However, the alliance as a whole is anticipated to lose 18 seats, with the INDIA coalition emerging as the biggest beneficiary. – Indiatoday Lok Sabha Elections Survey
The February 2024 edition of Mood of the Nation is based on a survey that was completed by 35,801 people across all Lok Sabha seats. This poll took place between December 15, 2023, and January 28, 2024. Health advisory: Opinion surveys may not always be precise. The INDIA opposition alliance, which incorporates the Congress party, is anticipated to secure 166 seats, but it will likely fall considerably short of presenting a major challenge to the NDA’s dominance.
In terms of party seat share, the BJP is expected to win 304 of the 543 seats, demonstrating its ability to command a simple majority on its own. The saffron party increases their 2019 tally of 303 by one. The Congress is poised to become the second-largest party with 71 seats, an increase of 19 from the previous election. The remaining 168 seats will be secured by other parties, including regional parties and independents.
The MOTN survey, conducted diligently through interviews across all parliamentary constituencies, illustrates a populace influenced by the BJP’s combination of welfare programs and a compelling nationalist narrative. Meanwhile, the opposition’s challenge in presenting a united front and an alternative leadership to PM Modi seems to be a significant obstacle to their electoral aspirations.
Yet, a wider trend evident across India mirrors the pattern observed in Assembly elections, wherein the BJP encountered difficulties in translating its national supremacy into victories at the state level. In states with influential regional parties, the saffron party struggled with variations in voting behavior between regional and national contexts. Uttar Pradesh stands out as an exception, where the BJP effectively countered regional influences without forming alliances with local players. Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to wield considerable influence on the country’s political scene as he prepares for a possible third term. The MOTN survey provides insight into public opinion regarding his tenure, addressing aspects such as his legacy, the government’s accomplishments and shortcomings, and the key challenges confronting the nation at present.
Here’s a thorough examination of the Mood of the Nation poll results.
- The construction of the Ram Mandir is perceived as the most significant element of PM Modi’s legacy, recognized by 42 percent of respondents.
- Another noteworthy accomplishment is the elevation of India’s global standing, which is considered essential by 19 percent of the population.
- The repeal of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir is highlighted by 12 percent of surveyed individuals.
- The effective management of the COVID-19 pandemic is seen as the most significant success, with 20 percent of respondents attributing credit to the PM Modi-led NDA government.
- The inauguration of the Ram temple continues to be a prominent highlight, with 17 percent considering it a major achievement.
- Preserving a reputation for being free from corruption is acknowledged by 14 percent of the population.
- Unemployment is identified as a major concern, with 18 percent of respondents considering it the primary failure of the current government.
- Price inflation ranks highest among failures at 24 percent, highlighting the economic difficulties experienced by citizens.
- The handling of the COVID-19 pandemic is perceived as a failure by 13 percent, showcasing varying viewpoints on the government’s actions.
- Unemployment is identified as the foremost concern for 26 percent of Indians, underscoring the urgency for job creation and economic reform.
- Price inflation is a notable worry for 19 percent of the populace, underscoring the effects of inflation on everyday living expenses.
- The country looks divided on whether the Modi government has effectively decreased corruption, with 46% responding ‘Yes’ and 47% saying ‘No’.