Prashant Kishor: According to political strategist Prashant Kishor, the opposition would have been in a stronger position for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections if it had not missed several opportunities to recover while Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was on the defensive.
The first time this happened, Kishor added, was in 2015 and 2016, when the BJP lost multiple state assembly elections.
The Aam Aadmi Party won the Delhi Assembly elections in January 2015. The BJP lost the elections in Bihar in November of that year. Assembly elections were conducted in Assam, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal the following year, from January to May. Only Assam was won by the BJP, and that was in an alliance. Those 15-18 months were an opportunity for the Congress-led opposition to recover because PM Modi’s popularity had only recently begun to rise (after 2014), Kishor told NDTV in an interview.
Kishor claims that the opposition also had a chance following the PM Modi-led government’s 2016 demonetization of the ₹500 and ₹1,000 currencies.
The nation experienced some sort of unrest. It may be referred to as rural or economic distress. In 2017, the BJP emerged victorious in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections; nevertheless, you may recall that Patels staged protests before the Gujarat polls. Maharashtra also witnessed rallies, according to Kishor.
He claimed that for the BJP and PM Modi, it was a bad time. “The Congress did not win the November 2017 Gujarat polls, but they did perform well. The BJP might be able to win by about fifteen seats. The BJP lost the elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan in the ensuing months. Thus, from mid-2017 to the end of 2018, there was another 15–17 month period during which the BJP was under pressure but the opposition lost the opportunity, according to Kishor.
Kishor claimed that the opposition wasted another opportunity in June 2021, following the second Covid-19 wave, when the Prime Minister’s approval ratings fell. The BJP has recently lost the West Bengal state elections, he explained.
The opposition’s last hope came in June 2023, when various parties formed the old INDIA group. And there was a buzz around the country that we had a challenge coming up against the BJP, which could have resulted in 220-240 seats in the 2024 elections. But for months, there was no progress, Kishor told NDTV.
As for the Lok Sabha Elections of 2024, Kishor has projected that the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will win back to power.
I’ve heard that the Congress anticipated winning five assembly elections in November-December 2023, but it didn’t happen. They believed that the INDIA bloc would begin the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections from a strong position. However, during this belief, they lost crucial 4-5 months while the BJP had already initiated campaigning under PM Modi. In fact, following the Ram Mandir event, the opposition nearly surrendered for two months. When they eventually realized in February, it was already too late,” he explained. -Prashant Kishor
With the fifth phase of voting taking place on May 20, elections for 428 out of 543 seats have concluded. The remaining two phases are scheduled for May 25 and June 1. Vote counting for all seven phases of the Lok Sabha Elections will take place on June 4.
Also Read: HSC Result 2024
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP and aiming for a historic third term with PM Narendra Modi at the helm, has set a goal of securing 400 seats in this election. The opposition, led by the Congress and united under the banner of the INDIA bloc, poses a challenge to the ruling alliance.