Survey: Almost every conversation in Telugu political circles centers on the Andhra Pradesh elections. Similarly, a lot depends on poll results, which are critical for determining the public mandate and which party is best positioned to hold power. On this matter, the RISE survey agency released its ground report on AP polling patterns, and they gave the TDP–JSP coalition a little advantage, but with a twist.
According to current estimates, the TDP-JSP coalition would win 94 MLA seats, the YCP will receive 46 seats, and the remaining 35 seats will be decided by a close contest between these two parties. However, the number of seats that the TDP and JSP gain will decrease if they choose to join an alliance with the BJP. This is a result of the anti-BJP sentiment that was evident in 2019 when the party won 0 MLA and 0 MP seats. Consequently, the RISE study indicates that the TDP-JSP alliance’s best course of action is to exclude the BJP from the coalition.
According to the RISE survey, the YCP, which saw a loss of nearly 100 MLA seats from 2019, is experiencing a decline in strength within the significant constituencies known as the big 4. These constituencies, namely Kadapa (10 seats), Kurnool (14 seats), Nellore (10 seats), and Vizianagaram (9 seats), were previously dominated by the YCP, contributing a total of 43 seats to its overall count in the last election cycle. However, the survey suggests that the upcoming 2024 elections will witness a shift in dynamics within these districts.
Survey: TDP-Janasena Alliance Leads, But With A Twist
While Kadapa’s 10 seats may or may not remain entirely with the YCP, the report highlights the likelihood of a seat-sharing arrangement between the TDP and JSP in Kurnool, Nellore, and Vizianagaram. This indicates that the political landscape in these areas will no longer be as one-sided as it was in 2019.
The trend of YCP’s comprehensive victories at the district level in 2019 is unlikely to repeat itself in 2024, according to reports. A significant shift is expected, especially with the absence of a division in anti-government votes, as the TDP and JSP have formed an alliance. Even in Rayalaseema, where the YCP secured 49 out of 52 seats previously, a considerable number of seats might be allocated to the alliance, as suggested by the report. However, it’s important to note that this is an estimate based on the current public sentiment towards the parties. Once the candidates are finalized, adjustments may occur. Nevertheless, the prevailing trend heavily favors the alliance, as observed in the ground reports provided by the RISE survey agency.
Ratnavali