Exit Poll 2024: As the clock ticks down to the release of the 2024 exit polls, all eyes are on prominent Indian poll strategist Prashant Kishor and his forecast for the Lok Sabha election outcomes. Kishor remains steadfast in his prediction, suggesting that the BJP will likely secure the elections with results comparable to or slightly better than those in 2019.
In his assessment, Kishor doesn’t foresee a significant shift in the number of seats for the BJP in western and northern India, where the party has traditionally performed well. However, he anticipates gains in the eastern and southern states, where the BJP has been actively working to bolster its presence. Prashant Kishor points out that the relative unfamiliarity of the electorate with the BJP in these regions could work in the party’s favor.
The BJP’s dominant performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where they secured 303 seats, serves as a benchmark for Kishor’s projections. He suggests that the party may see a rise in both seat tally and vote share, particularly in states like Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu.
Kishor’s confidence in the BJP’s prospects stems from the perceived absence of a formidable opposition. He believes that unless there is widespread anger or significant demand for change, the Modi-led BJP is likely to retain power. Kishor emphasizes the lack of a unified, credible figurehead in the opposition camp, which he sees as a significant disadvantage.
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In his critique, Kishor highlights the public perception of the opposition’s leadership vacuum, stating that without a clear, credible challenger, the BJP is unlikely to face a substantial threat. Overall, he does not expect a significant change in the electoral landscape unless there is a significant shift in public sentiment.